Country Report United Arab Emirates May 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Exchange rates

The UAE dirham's peg to the US dollar (at Dh3.673:US$1) is expected to remain in place in the forecast period. However, questions about its effectiveness will re-emerge, as the Central Bank has established a panel of international experts to advise it on future policy. The Central Bank remains committed to the existing system. The peg has provided stability for decades, and, having ridden out the problems that a fixed currency brings for this long, the authorities seem keen not to change the system. The UAE's withdrawal from the GCC monetary union project has no immediate implications for the exchange rate over the forecast period. Critics of the currency peg have argued that it restricts monetary policymaking by tying domestic interest rates to US rates. Despite the peg, the cost of living in the UAE will increase substantially in 2011-15, as the purchasing power of the dirham declines.

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