Revision to historic growth data

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which is a newly created entity tasked with consolidating the economic data of all emirates, has announced a revision of the historical growth data. The methodology and the reasons for these revisions have not been stated. The historical data for nominal GDP has been revised back to 1975. The base year has been changed to 2007 (from 2000 previously), but this only applies to revisions in real GDP data from 2001 to 2009. The data prior to 2001 has been provided with different base years, making it difficult to compare real growth levels. The Economist Intelligence Unit has therefore only used the revised real GDP levels from 2001 to 2009, although it has used all the revised growth rates.

The data for 2009 are preliminary and subject to revision. The revised data show that real GDP fell by 1.6% in 2009. Although this is more realistic than the previous growth estimates of 1.3% (and is more in line with our estimate of a fall of 2.7%), the data for 2009 require further explanation. The revised data show growth of 3.9% in real GDP in the hydrocarbons sector in spite of a fall in both oil production and oil prices. Gas production also fell in 2009. Therefore, it must be assumed that the rise in growth in the hydrocarbons sector is attributable to a specific formula used by the NBS. Nominal growth in the hydrocarbons sector fell by almost 33%, which more accurately reflects the fall in production and prices.

We have reflected the revisions in our reports. This will result in changes to forecasts. The revised data have been released by the NBS on its website, which we will continue to monitor closely.