Country Report United Arab Emirates May 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

Monetary policy will continue to focus on protecting the banking sector and increasing liquidity in 2011, but the Central Bank of the UAE will also monitor inflation closely. It announced, in early October 2010, a one-month extension to the temporary repo (repurchase) rate of just 1%, in order to increase liquidity in the financial system. However, the repo rate remains at 1%. The introduction of a new system to calculate the Emirates interbank offered rate (Eibor) has also eased pressure on the banks. Several Dubai GREs, as well as the Dubai government, have managed to raise capital through bond issues. This reflects the increasing appetite for high yields from international investors.

As a result of the recession, the Central Bank increased the minimum capital-adequacy ratio to 12% in June 2010. This requirement will be reviewed in 2011. As the economy gradually recovers and inflationary pressures re-emerge, the Central Bank will turn its attention to controlling price rises. An increase in US interest rates from the second half of 2012 will help the authorities in this task.

In May 2010 the UAE withdrew from the project to establish a GCC single currency. The move has no direct economic implications for 2011-15, as the single currency is not expected to be launched within the forecast period.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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