Country Report United Arab Emirates May 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: International relations

The UAE will deepen its relations with the US and major Western powers, as the risk of conflict over Iran's nuclear programme persists. The UAE's relationship with Asia, especially China and India, will play an increasingly prominent role in trade, security and investments in the region. Relations between South Korea and the UAE have also increased since South Korea won the contract to build four nuclear power stations in 2009.

The unrest in the Middle East has created the potential for strains to appear in the UAE's traditionally close relations with the West. The UAE has shown through its participation in the NATO-led military intervention in Libya that it is committed to playing an active role in the international policy response to political crises in the region. However, the UAE has been reluctant to join in Western criticism of some regimes that have responded to protests with repressive measures, notably Bahrain and Syria. These topics were the focus of discussion between the crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and the US president, Barack Obama, during a meeting in Washington in April. In Bahrain, UAE security forces are part of the Saudi-led contingent that intervened in March as part of the Peninsula Shield Force of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). The GCC claimed that the purpose of this intervention was to safeguard security in a member state in the face of an external threat, ostensibly posed by Iran. In practice, the intervention was a robust gesture of support for the Bahraini ruling family's decision to use force to suppress the protest movement, whose core demands were for reforms to the system rather than the overthrow of the regime. The US had indicated that it was in favour of dialogue, but the Obama administration has desisted from any overt criticism of the Bahraini authorities or of the GCC intervention. The UAE and other GCC member states, in particular Kuwait, have maintained contact with the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and are unlikely to heed calls from the West for them to take an overtly critical stance, for example through the GCC. The UAE and fellow Gulf Arab states appear to be concerned about the wider implications for regional security were the Assad regime to fall.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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