The political scene will remain broadly stable in the forecast period; there is a risk that some political protests will be held, but these are likely to be limited and non-violent. The president of the UAE and the ruler of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, has the backing of the ruling families in the other six emirates, including the ruler of Dubai and prime minister of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum. Sheikh Khalifa enjoys the support of his half-brother and designated crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, a younger, more dynamic figure. However, the protests in Egypt, and more importantly, those in Bahrain, have unnerved the authorities. There have recently been calls on online social media such as Facebook for rallies, but there have been no public demonstrations so far.

Power will remain concentrated within the large ruling families, although relations within these families are sometimes fractious. Moreover, there is no formal structure for determining family seniority or claims on power. Sheikh Khalifa and Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid are both young for Gulf rulers and are therefore expected to remain in power throughout the forecast period. Both have crown princes named as next in line, and there is little risk of problems with the succession processes. The key risk to political stability, during a heightened period of unrest in the region, stems from growing discontent among the northern emirates. The benefits of economic development in the UAE in the past decade have mainly been enjoyed by Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The smaller northern emirates remain underdeveloped, with infrastructure development lagging behind their wealthier neighbours. This has resulted in a widening wealth gap between Emiratis in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and those in the northern emirates. Although the small Emirati population has long been the beneficiary of generous state patronage, the northern emirates remain a key risk to political stability.

The UAE will also remain at risk from violent attacks by Islamist extremists. Its proximity to Iran and its status as a regional services hub render it vulnerable to regional security threats.