Country Report Algeria January 2011

Economic policy: Algeria holds out on BP acreage sale

The government has still not authorised the request of BP, a UK-based oil major, to release data on its assets in Algeria to the UK-Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, according to sources close to the deal. BP is understood to have requested permission to release data on three fields; Bourarhet, In Salah and In Amenas. The government has refused to allow BP to share data on Bourarhet, and has delayed a decision on the other two fields while it considers whether it wishes to purchase the acreage, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. Statoil, a Norwegian energy company that holds an interest in the two fields along with BP and the state energy company, Sonatrach, is also understood to have expressed an interest in acquiring BP's share in In Salah and In Amenas, which BP is understood to value at an estimated US$3bn.

There are a number of reasons why Algeria might wish to increase the share of Sonatrach in the two assets. Sonatrach is a minority shareholder in In Salah, and holds a 50% share in In Amenas, which is not consistent with a 2006 amendment to the hydrocarbons law that stipulates Sonatrach must have a majority stake in upstream oil and gas contracts. The government is also understood to be considering a case for developing In Salah into a strategic gas hub for newly developed gas from the south-west, or Nigerian gas through the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP). The TSGP is not a realistic prospect in the medium term, but is still understood to be under consideration, and In Salah lies on the pipeline's proposed route. In a deal that is unique to the In Salah acreage, Sonatrach shares gas-marketing rights with BP for all gas extracted from the province, terms which the government would be keen to renegotiate if it were to become a hub for gas from elsewhere in the country.

Political considerations will also play a role. There is a powerful lobby in Algeria that is keen to see the state increase its ownership in the economy at the expense of international investors, and the influence of this group has been increasingly apparent in the past two years. The deal is also complicated by the fact that the Alfa Group has a stake in both VimpelCom and TNK-BP. Algeria has proved reluctant to pursue a closer relationship with Russia. A strategic deal between Sonatrach and a Russian gas company, Gazprom, was allowed to lapse, having achieved nothing, and Russia's agreement to forgive Algerian debt in return for a multi-billion-dollar arms deal turned into an embarrassment when Algeria returned a shipment of faulty MiG fighter aircraft to Russia. The recent visit of Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, in which he pressed the case for both VimpelCom and TNK-BP, is understood to have made little impression on the Algerian government (November 2010, The political scene). All options remain on the table, according to sources close to the BP deal. Sonatrach's preferred solution may be to increase its share to a majority stake in the two projects, while allowing Statoil or a third party to buy the balance.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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