Country Report Algeria January 2011

The political scene: President's brother reported to be head of a new party

Reports emerged in the national press in late 2010 that a political party is being set up under the leadership of Said Bouteflika, the brother of the president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Said Bouteflika "has accepted to be the president" of a new party, known as the Rassemblement pour la concorde nationale (RCN), on the condition that 2m signatures are collected in his support, reported Le Quotidien d'Oran, a local daily, on November 30th. According to the paper, the party was created at a meeting in Laghouat, in the Atlas mountains, 400 km south of the capital, Algiers, on November 25th. The collection of signatures has already begun and several branches of the party have been created across the country, said the paper. Said Bouteflika has neither confirmed nor denied the reports, according to an article in El Watan, another local daily, on December 1st.

Speculation first emerged that Said Bouteflika was being groomed as a potential successor to his brother in mid-2009, when the local press reported that a new political party was in the process of being created under his leadership (July 2009, The political scene). Then, as now, there was no official confirmation of the reports, and the leaders of the two main parties in the government coalition, the Front de libération nationale (FLN) and the Rassemblement national démocratique (RND), dismissed the reports. In its recent report, Le Quotidien d'Oran said that the party has "not yet secured official approval," and was refused permission to hold its first general assembly in its chosen venue in Laghouat.

It is unlikely, though, that such reports would be allowed to emerge if they were completely groundless. The 2009 reports were widely interpreted as a move to test the political waters for reaction to Said Bouteflika as a potential successor to his brother, and the story's re-emergence can be seen in a similar light. The earlier reports engendered little support for the idea of a dynastic presidency, and question marks remain over the credentials of Said, who has limited political experience and almost no public profile. But the timing of the more recent developments, coming at a time of crisis for the FLN, the country's largest party, suggests that this could be the start of a more sustained campaign on his behalf. Following the amendment of the constitution at the end of 2008 to allow the president to stand for a third presidential term, there are few obvious candidates to succeed him. The prime minister, Ahmed Ouyahia, has developed a strong political career and is believed by many to be the heir apparent, but the strength of the regime's support for the presidency of someone who is a technocrat lacking in military or political pedigree is not certain. No assumptions can be made at this stage about the succession, but if the president can remain in good health there are three and a half years left of his current mandate, giving ample time for Said Bouteflika to establish a presence on the political scene.

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