We expect Algeria's trade account to post surpluses throughout the forecast period. Despite stronger domestic demand and higher commodity prices, especially for food and construction materials, the import bill has been contained by the government's stringent measures to cut down on import spending since 2009, as well as by a stronger dinar against the euro. Lower gas prices, mainly because of a currently well-supplied European spot market, mean that Algeria's export performance will not match that seen in 2008 until the later years of the forecast period. The trade surplus will average US$25.9bn in 2011-15.

Remittances will remain an important non-merchandise inflow but will be dwarfed by non-merchandise outflows, as efforts to develop the hydrocarbons, power, water and construction sectors continue to draw in foreign inputs. Profit repatriation, largely associated with the energy sector, will be the main debit on the income account, ensuring it remains in deficit despite earnings from Algeria's massive foreign assets (official and unofficial). We expect the current-account surplus to average 3.8% of GDP in 2011-12, lower than our estimate for 2010. It will then average around 2.3% of GDP over the remainder of the forecast period.