Country Report Tanzania May 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Policy trends

Economic policy in 2011-12 will be orientated around growth and poverty reduction as the priorities, balanced against the need to reduce the fiscal deficit and tighten monetary policy in the face of rising inflation. However, even with fiscal consolidation, the government will seek to increase capital spending, an area continually held back by capacity constraints. In this respect the government's main aim is to boost spending on infrastructure development, financed by a combination of raising new funds (such as a debut Eurobond) and public-private partnerships.

Further reforms in the agricultural sector are still needed to boost the fortunes of the roughly two-thirds of Tanzanians who earn a living from the land. The government has shied away from the fundamental changes necessary to increase growth in the sector, particularly in land rights, but the launch of the ambitious Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGOT) scheme-which involves ramping up agricultural production in an area of the country approximately the size of Italy-may be the start of a major boost to the government's Kilimo Kwanza (agriculture first) policy. A key aim is that of improving infrastructure and providing small-scale farmers with a link to markets as well as access to better inputs of both seeds and fertiliser.

With Mr Kikwete successfully re-elected to a second and final term and no longer shackled by having to make compromises in order to win re-election, it may also prove possible for the president to push through more contentious reforms, such as reform of the weak legal system and the reduction of corruption. Encouragingly, the new cabinet consists of a cabal of ministers who are not only loyal to the president, but who also reflect his overall thinking on many key policy issues, so progress with much-needed liberalisation and reform is a distinct possibility. Nevertheless, it is important not to get carried away, as breaking away from Tanzania's long history of slow policy reform will be a difficult task.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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