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Country Report Turkey April 2011
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HTMLOutlook for 2011-15: Forecast summary
| Forecast summary | ||||||
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| 2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
| Real GDP growth | 8.1c | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Industrial production growth | 13.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Gross fixed investment growth | 26.5c | 16.0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Unemployment rate (av) | 12.0 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 9.7 |
| Consumer price inflation (av) | 8.6 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 6.4 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Short-term interbank rate | 5.8 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| Government balance (% of GDP) | -3.6c | -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.0 |
| Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 120.9cd | 130.0 | 138.4 | 149.7 | 165.9 | 185.7 |
| Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 177.3cd | 192.1 | 200.0 | 214.8 | 229.8 | 252.4 |
| Current-account balance (US$ bn) | -48.6cd | -50.9 | -50.1 | -53.9 | -55.3 | -58.1 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -6.7c | -6.8 | -6.0 | -5.9 | -5.4 | -5.1 |
| External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 292.7c | 302.7 | 302.6 | 307.2 | 314.0 | 321.6 |
| Exchange rate TL:US$ (av) | 1.503 | 1.598 | 1.613 | 1.629 | 1.615 | 1.609 |
| Exchange rate TL:US$ (end-period) | 1.541 | 1.605 | 1.621 | 1.622 | 1.612 | 1.606 |
| Exchange rate TL:¥100 (av) | 1.710 | 1.960 | 1.991 | 2.011 | 1.967 | 1.927 |
| Exchange rate TL:€ (av) | 1.992 | 2.089 | 2.016 | 1.958 | 1.983 | 2.052 |
| a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. d Based on Central Bank of Turkey full-year data. | ||||||
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