Country Report Turkey April 2011

Economic performance: Economic activity remained strong in early 2011

Year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 5.5% in the third quarter of 2010, having rebounded strongly in the wake of the 2008-09 recession, but available data suggest that it may have accelerated again in the fourth quarter. Early indicators for 2011 also point to strong economic activity, notwithstanding the recent policies of the Central Bank, a measure of currency and financial market volatility, rising international oil prices and the potential negative effects of the crises in several Middle East and North African countries on financial flows, business confidence and trade. In January, industrial production increased by 18.9% year on year, with the machinery, refining and automotive sectors continuing to lead the way. On a seasonally and calendar-adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production increased by 0.5%, after the unexpectedly sharp 5.5% increase in December 2010. Economic activity appears to have remained buoyant in February 2011. Although capacity utilisation in manufacturing industry, at 73%, was the lowest ratio for five months-partly for seasonal reasons-it remained 5.2 percentage points higher than in February 2010. The automotive sector performed strongly again, producing over 100,000 vehicles-21% more than a year earlier. Helped by robust credit growth, the number of vehicles sold in the domestic market (including imported models) was 62,045-an unusually high figure for February and 92% more than in the same month in 2010.

Industrial production
(2005=100; % change year on year, unless otherwise indicated)
 20092010           2011
 Food & beverages21.813.914.813.911.
 Metal industry15.4-0.70.416.88.910.41.17.810.
 Miscellaneous machinery31.712.115.751.836.421.732.535.426.441.030.841.842.548.7
Total industrial production23.912.817.621.416.914.910.08.810.810.49.99.416.718.9
Intermediate goods33.515.721.329.122.422.813.
Durable consumer goods22.731.625.924.
Non-durable consumer goods22.24.413.513.
Capital goods21.438.234.835.926.620.525.010.422.720.325.523.033.534.9
Total industrial productiona-
a Seasonally and calendar adjusted; % change month on month.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat).

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