The next legislative election is due to be held in late 2012, at the end of the forecast period. The polls will be a showdown between the two largest parties in the National Assembly-the ruling PAIGC and the PRS-although several small parties could win a handful of seats. The PAIGC is consumed by factionalism and in-fighting, which will only intensify should Mr Gomes Júnior decide to withdraw from politics, triggering a battle over his succession. The PRS will do its utmost to exploit divisions within the PAIGC ahead of the polls as it seeks to win a parliamentary majority and lay the groundwork for Mr Yala's likely presidential election bid in 2014. As a result, the run-up to the election will be bitter and divisive, and there is a real risk that the political violence that preceded the 2009 presidential poll will be repeated.

The rising influence of the military hangs over the electoral process, and the risk of a further coup attempt-or even a military seizure of power-remains high, which would lead to the legislative election being postponed indefinitely. The next presidential election is not due until 2014. Should Mr Sanhá be forced to step down because of ill health, the constitution mandates that his position would be filled temporarily by the president of the National Assembly, and a presidential election would be required to be held within 60 days.