We expect Curaçao's government to retain the Netherlands Antilles guilder, as efforts to introduce a new currency, the Caribbean guilder, have stalled. Sint Maarten and Curaçao, which formed a currency union in 2010, had intended to adopt the new currency jointly. However, Sint Maarten has a preference for adoption of the US dollar, which Curaçao opposes. This stalemate means that the currency union will remain intact in the short term at least, with the Netherlands Antilles guilder pegged to the US dollar at Naf1.79:US$1. The real effective exchange rate has depreciated substantially since 2011 (by around 44%) owing to impact of hyperinflation in Venezuela, Curaçao's third-largest trading partner.