Curaçao has been a self-governing nation (except in matters of defence and judicial policy) since October 2010. The Netherlands remains responsible for defence, which will strain the relationship between the two countries in the short term, as Curaçao has increased demands for security assistance owing to concerns about the large inflow undocumented Venezuelan migrants. The Kingdom Council of the Netherlands (the Netherlands ministerial executive, whose responsibilities include former Dutch colonies) will continue to provide technical support and fiscal oversight. The island's foreign policy will continue to be directed towards achieving a larger role for Curaçao in regional affairs, including developing social and cultural ties with other former Netherlands colonies. The governments of Curaçao and Aruba are likely to join the Sint Maarten constitutional court by end-2019, a development that would bolster regional cooperation. Moreover, we expect Curaçao and Sint Maarten to become associate members of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) by end-2019, following their applications for accession in February.

The government will try to maintain links with Venezuela, traditionally its primary trade partner. Although relations between the two countries have rapidly deteriorated, travel permits were restored in April 2018. Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, has a lease on the island's Isla oil refinery until 2019. However, the economic collapse in Venezuela has caused underinvestment in the refinery, which as at end-August operates at minimum capacity (producing 50,000 barrels/day-b/d-compared with its full capacity of 355,000 b/d). Following a May 2018 court ruling that allows ConocoPhillips, a US company, to seize PDVSA's assets in repayment for a longstanding arbitration over the latter's nationalisation of the oil industry, the Curaçao government will negotiate (The Economist Intelligence Unit expects negotiations to be successful) to ensure that the refinery remains in operation. As of August the state-owned Refineria di Korsou has been in talks with right strategic partners and we expect a deal to handover the lease from PDVSA shortly.