Country Report Senegal March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

The 2012 presidential election will be held on February 26th, with Mr Wade's candidacy confirmed, having seemingly neutralised internal PDS dissent from the mayor of Thiès, Idrissa Seck. Despite waning popularity in the cities, the president's support remains strong in the countryside, and among religious groups, albeit dented slightly following the government's crackdown on street begging. Turning opposition to Mr Wade into electoral victory will not be easy. Increased jockeying for position among the opposition will be exploited by the president to fragment opposition support. Such rivalry could strain the informal opposition alliances that contributed to the rout of the PDS in local polls in March 2009. Unity may yet be preserved by the coalition around a popular singer and businessman, Youssou Ndour, and his political awareness movement, Fekke ma ci boole, or the Mouvement politique citoyen, led by a former justice minister, Cheikh Tidiane Gadio. Other leading opposition figures include a former prime minister, Macky Sall; the Parti socialiste (PS) leader, Ousmane Tanor Dieng; and Khalifa Sall, the popular PS mayor of the capital, Dakar. Another anti-Wade group, Terminus 2012, was launched in August by a former World Bank consultant, Amadou Guéye. Although the PDS's parliamentary majority grew in 2007 as a result of the opposition's electoral boycott, the party is still likely to remain in power come the 2012 National Assembly elections. Nonetheless, a victory for Mr Wade-currently our core scenario-could provoke widespread protests, although concrete improvements in the power-supply situation may be enough to save him.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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