Senegal has, since independence, enjoyed one of the most democratically developed and stable polities in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, this is coming under increasing threat from the controversial intention of the president, Abdoulaye Wade, to run for a third term in the 2012 election. Having stated his intention last September, Mr Wade has secured the backing of the steering committee of the Parti démocratique sénégalais (PDS), which dominates the ruling Sopi coalition and the National Assembly. The reshuffle and expansion of the cabinet last June strengthened his position within the party, although the multiplicity of overlapping portfolios will arouse public ire for its wastefulness and will also probably hinder policy development and implementation. Talk of Mr Wade's son and key minister, Karim Wade, running instead has subsided, as, constitutionality notwithstanding, the PDS leadership believes that Mr Wade remains better placed than his unpopular and electorally unsuccessful son to secure the party's dominance. This may, however, be a strategy to lay the ground for Karim to take over after his father's re-election.

Opposition to Mr Wade's candidacy is mounting. His age is a key concern; his personality-driven ruling style has meant that, should he fall ill, there would be no obvious replacement and the party could face a destabilising power struggle. Legality is the bigger objection; the 2001 constitution limits presidents to two terms, but Mr Wade's allies assert his eligibility for a third, as it would be his second under the revised constitution. Appointing a new president of the Constitutional Council is an attempt to head off such legal challenges, while the return of Mr Wade's trusted ally, Ousmane Ngom, to the Ministry of the Interior will help to overcome constitutional and electoral hurdles.

Opposition parties will seek to capitalise on deep popular discontent over long-standing problems such as worsening power shortages, high unemployment and poor social welfare provision, with protests having broken out over recent electricity outages, high telephone charges, poor governance and Mr Wade's electoral intentions. The government will continue to strive to improve energy security, but the state's limited capacity to implement policy and the government's mixed signals regarding fiscal discipline may hinder progress.

The insurgency in the Casamance region, led by the separatist Mouvement des forces démocratiques de la Casamance (MFDC), has flared up sporadically for nearly three decades, with little progress since talks failed in 2005. Although some military success in early 2010 prompted calls from some MFDC leaders for a ceasefire and negotiation, violence has since intensified, with the government blaming Iran for supplying the rebels' more sophisticated weaponry. That the MFDC remains splintered into rival factions is also an obstacle to the negotiation of a comprehensive peace deal. Furthermore, as rebel groups vie for dominance amid an increasingly unsupportive local population, they are resorting more to banditry to fund their operations. The drug-trafficking that has affected Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania is becoming increasingly problematic in Senegal as narcotics seizures increase in size and frequency, despite the US-funded African Maritime Law Enforcement Partnership programme.