The current-account deficit widened to an estimated 18% of GDP in 2016, and we expect only modest narrowing in the short term. The trade deficit decreased in 2016 as a result of a decline in trade-related oil refinery activities (which have large import components) and weak demand for consumer imports. Continued modest growth in investment and the economy as a whole will begin to push up demand for imported goods, but the trade deficit will continue to shrink slightly as a share of GDP as oil import costs remain contained. We expect the surplus on the services account to decline as tourism continues to struggle in 2017-18, compounded by growth in the deficits on the income and current transfers accounts. Overall, these trends are expected to result in a modest narrowing of the current-account deficit to an average of 14.7% of GDP in 2017-18. Inward foreign direct investment (FDI), which had stabilised in recent years in response to recovering tourism (the FDI figure of US$146.4m in 2015 was the highest tally since 2008) has begun to slip slightly, dropping to US$133.1m in 2016. More significant inflows will have to wait until government reform efforts improve competitiveness. Curaçao has access to bilateral and multilateral loans, and we expect this to remain the case, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis. International reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at US$1.4bn at end-July 2017 (down from US$1.5bn at end-2016), providing 5 months of import cover.