Country Report Oman April 2011

The political scene: Authorities move to end month-long demonstrations

Following three weeks of relative calm, violence flared again in Sohar at the beginning of April. One person was killed and several others injured, as angry protesters gathered after Friday prayers demanding the release of those arrested a few days before when the government attempted to bring a month of countrywide protests and strikes to an end by using the army to clear demonstrators from Sohar's Globe Roundabout. According to a statement released by the Public Prosecution Office, some of the protesters were armed and began shooting at the security forces who responded using rubber bullets, wounding five protesters.

Throughout March, the authorities alternated between forcible attempts to clear the demonstrators, and negotiation and concessions. For the final two weeks of the month the government appeared to be playing a waiting game, presumably hoping that the demonstrators would eventually accept the concessions that had been made, pack up and go home. Although there have been equally large and lengthy protests in other parts of the country, most notably in Salalah and Muscat, the capital, these have been completely peaceful. By contrast, violence and the subsequent death of at least one protester in the early days of the demonstrations in Sohar in late February have made the coastal town a focal point for national unrest. Furthermore, the occupation of the roundabout and the subsequent blocking of the main highway between Muscat and the UAE-the most economically important route in the country-resulted in the Sohar protests causing daily inconvenience and economic damage in the town that has been the focus of Oman's successful attempts to attract foreign investment into economic diversification projects.

Public reaction to the clearance of the Sohar demonstration seemed favourable, but the death of another protester may well inflame the situation once again. Although there has been general support for many of the demonstrators' complaints, particularly about low wages and government corruption, there was also widespread condemnation of the violence and vandalism that marked the early stages of the protests in the town. With so many concessions having been made, the Sohar demonstrators' additional demands, such as a minimum monthly wage of OR500 (US$1,299) for Omanis, looked increasingly unreasonable. Lately there has been public bewilderment over why the sultan, Qaboos bin Said al-Said, has not chosen to speak directly to the nation to explain the concessions that have been made, and ask for calm to be restored. All comments from the sultan about the protests have come second hand to the public, such as the official press release following the meeting of the new cabinet in mid-March at which the sultan spoke about the need for transparency, and for everyone to co-operate to maintain security and stability.

The initial demonstrations were met with a flurry of concessions in the form of royal decrees. Far from calming the situation, as the sultan may have hoped, the wider public appear to have become emboldened by the protesters' success. After decades of government and self-imposed censorship, the flood gates of pent up frustration were opened. Groups all over the country found their collective voice, and strikes and sit-ins affected a wide range of private and public institutions, with a mixture of demands of which some were reasonable and many were not. Among the latter were calls from some students for the pass marks in their examinations to be lowered.

In recent years the sultan has limited his direct role in government, relying on his ministers to deal with the day-to-day running of the country. This may have been partly to delegate more responsibility to his cabinet members, but also a reflection of the fact that, at 70, he is of an age when most people are enjoying retirement. The events of the past few weeks have forced him back into the driving seat. After widespread changes at the highest level he has lost his experienced and previously trusted team, and is now in charge of a cabinet in which many have not held ministerial posts before. The scale of the changes, combined with recent airing of the public's anger at high-level corruption, is likely to have a paralysing effect on the government in the coming months.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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