Having widened in 2010, the trade surplus is expected to increase further in 2011, buoyed by higher oil prices, but will narrow in 2012 as oil prices fall and production increases modestly. Exports are forecast to grow by an average of 10.7% in 2011-12, boosted by higher oil prices and the continued development of Oman's sea ports, which will increase re-export trade, provided the protests do not escalate. The trade surplus is forecast to widen to US$20.4bn in 2011, before falling to US$17.7bn in 2012.

The services deficit is forecast to widen in 2011-12, despite plans by the government to develop infrastructure to attract tourists. Any increase in tourism receipts will be offset by a rise in payments to cover the cost of EOR projects. We forecast that the non-merchandise deficit will widen to an average of US$15.4bn in 2011-12. The current transfers deficit will increase to an average of US$5.5bn in 2011-12. The current account moved from a deficit in 2009 to an estimated surplus (of 3.6% of GDP) in 2010. The surplus is forecast to widen significantly in 2011 before narrowing in 2012, averaging 5.7% in 2011-12.