Oman's ties with its most important international allies-the US and the UK-will remain strong over the forecast period. However, relationships with Asian countries, especially India and China, will continue to strengthen. Oman also has good relations with Iran and will continue to monitor the ongoing dispute over Iran's nuclear programme with some discomfort. In August 2009 the sultan visited Iran for the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution, signalling Oman's willingness to engage directly with the country during a period of heightened international tension. Oman is therefore likely to maintain cordial relations with its Western allies as well as with Iran. The increasing isolation of Iran from the international community will allow Oman to act as a bridge between the West and Iran, increasing the importance of its role as a mediator.

Oman advocates a strong diplomatic approach to the Middle East's other political issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Political instability in Yemen, which has also seen an escalation of protests, will be watched with concern and Oman has already tightened security at the Oman-Yemen border to prevent an influx of Yemenis into Oman. Relations with the UAE have been strained following the announcement of the discovery of a network of spies working for the UAE. There were also rumours alleging that the UAE was behind the protests in Oman, although there is no evidence to support this theory. Given the political, economic and military importance of Oman's historical links to the West, we expect no change in the sultanate's pro-Western foreign policy in 2011-12.