The popular protests that started in Sohar in late February are likely to continue, but the threat of an overthrow of the established order remains slight. Although the sultan, Qaboos bin Said al-Said, has made significant concessions both in political and in economic terms, the measures have failed to satisfy protesters. The risk of more protests remains high as young Omanis test limits and push boundaries to see how much the government is willing to concede. As things stand, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect the protests in Oman to yield the same results as those in Tunisia and Egypt; they are aimed at ministers and are calling for an end to government corruption. However, if there are more deaths owing to heavy-handed policing tactics or if there are sustained protests, the situation could change rapidly. The intensity of the protests is surprising, since they follow celebrations as the sultan completed 40 years of rule in 2010. The main risk factors include the fact that the sultan retains all decision-making power. The government is appointed by the sultan, who is also the prime minister and holds the defence, finance and foreign affairs portfolios.

The biggest political risk, and one that is likely to further alienate Omani citizens from the political process, is the uncertainty over who will succeed the long-serving sultan. The sultan has no children, and none of the three first cousins widely viewed as the leading candidates to succeed him has yet been trusted with substantial executive power. The most prominent among these is Assad bin Tariq al-Said, who is currently the special representative of the sultan.

The final decision on who will succeed Sultan Qaboos will not be made until after his death, when family members will have three days to choose a successor. Should they prove unable to agree, a letter left by the sultan naming his choice of successor will be opened, and that person will become the new leader. The system is untested and unusual-Arab monarchies tend to have named crown princes. In light of the protests, this unusual method will not sit well with protesters, as it excludes citizens from participating in the transfer of power.