The next general election must be held by 2013. Pakistan's political landscape can change significantly within the space of a few months, but it is likely that the contest will be primarily a tussle between the country's two largest parties, the PPP and the main opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML (N). In October 2010 Pervez Musharraf, the former military ruler who later became the country's civilian president, launched a new party, the All-Pakistan Muslim League, from the UK, where he has lived in exile since being forced to resign as president in 2008. Mr Musharraf has vowed to contest the next general election, saying that he will return to Pakistan before the poll. He retains a degree of influence in the military but was hugely unpopular during his last months in office, and the Economist Intelligence Unit therefore doubts his ability to stage a triumphant return to politics.

The government's temporary loss of its legislative majority in January had raised the spectre of a possible no-confidence motion and a subsequent snap election. Although this threat has been averted for now, another political crisis that might lead to the fall of the government and an early poll is a possibility. The PML (N) is unlikely to push for such an outcome, however, as its victory in a snap election is not assured and because it would prefer to remain in opposition while the country remains beset by grave political, diplomatic, economic and security problems.