On the surface, the prospects for political stability are currently better than they have been in many months, thanks to the emergence of a relatively broad-based ruling coalition. This follows the decision of both the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam), or PML (Q), to join the coalition government led by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). However, inter-party relations remain volatile, and much political conflict during the forecast period will remain highly personalised. The likelihood that there will be a significant and sustained improvement in political effectiveness is therefore still remote. Moreover, tensions between the civilian government and the army may rise again in the aftermath of the killing by US special forces of Osama bin Laden, the founder and leader of the al-Qaida international terrorist network.

The MQM had been in opposition since January this year, when it left the government after a dispute over fuel price rises, while the PML (Q) had been in opposition since its defeat in the 2008 general election. The MQM's flip-flopping indicates that it is likely to continue to try to advance its own agenda even at the expense of government effectiveness and political stability. Meanwhile, the PPP's actions in recent months have demonstrated that it will prioritise the aim of preserving the ruling coalition over other considerations. However, the party's recent policy reversals (undertaken in large part to appease the MQM) smack of desperation and serve to underscore its weakness. A major risk is that the government has set a precedent, so that any future inter-party squabbles will create a renewed threat to the existence of the coalition and will again lead officials to make concessions in order to prevent the collapse of the administration. The PML (Q)'s presence in the coalition is unlikely to alter this dynamic, since the PPP and the PML (Q) have historically had a strongly adversarial relationship.

Pakistan has a long history of military coups-it has been ruled by generals for around one-half of its existence as an independent country-and the possibility that continued bungling by a civilian government might prompt the army to assert itself politically once more can not be discounted. However, under the leadership of General Ashfaq Kayani the military has withdrawn from direct participation in politics, and there are numerous reasons why the army would prefer not to take direct control in the near future. Moreover, the circumstances surrounding the killing of Mr bin Laden have badly tarnished the previously sterling reputation of the army (and also of the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI), so that in the short term popular opposition to a military coup is likely to be much higher than it would otherwise have been.