According to provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's real GDP grew by 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from 7.9% in the previous quarter, and overall growth for the year was estimated at 7.9%. The non-oil sector, which has experienced robust expansion in recent years, remained the major driver of growth, with most of thrust provided by agriculture, wholesale and retail trade and services. Agricultural output has benefited from favourable weather, and the increasing commercialisation of the sector. This is good news; although still high, the trend of food inflation in Nigeria has been mostly downward in recent months despite world prices of many food crops rising since July 2010. We do not expect growth to be as strong in 2011, mainly owing to the political uncertainty generated by the April elections. Investors are likely to adopt a cautious approach during the election period, while domestic confidence may well also take a dent if the elections are disputed, leading to even wider insecurity. Nevertheless, assuming that the political transition is managed without any catastrophic breakdown in security, the economy is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2012.