Country Report Nigeria February 2011

Economic policy: Reigning in government spending will be difficult

The Central Bank is not alone in expressing concern about the state of Nigeria's public finances, especially growth in government spending and the depletion of the nation's external reserves and windfall oil savings despite current high levels of world petroleum prices. On January 20th the Presidential Advisory Council (PAC) urged the government to slash recurrent spending to 40% of the budget and reduce the budget deficit to no more than 3% of GDP. The panel, headed by former defence minister, Theophilus Danjuma, recommended that the current high cost of running government could be reduced by merging some ministries and agencies and reducing the remunerations of political office holders, thereby freeing up funds for development projects. However, recurrent expenditure accounts for more than 70% of the government's 2011 budget proposal currently before parliament, and significant cuts are unlikely in the run up to an election. Tighter fiscal policy is expected to receive renewed attention for the 2012 budget with a new government in place, but spending pressures are likely to remain high for years to come. Even if the government can face down the unions and cut the wage bill and subsidies-itself unlikely-infrastructure spending will remain high. Indeed, a return to fiscal deficits below 3% of GDP seems unlikely unless oil prices climb even higher than present, boosting revenue.

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