Oil prices will remain the single largest determinant of the health of Nigeria's external position, as diversification during the forecast period is expected to be subdued at best. An increase in the oil price forecast for 2011 improves the external position at the start of the forecast period, but with oil prices falling back subsequently, overall export growth will be relatively slow. Meanwhile, imports will grow more rapidly as infrastructure spending is scaled up and strong economic growth attracts higher levels of consumer imports. This means that the current-account surplus will gradually shrink as a proportion of GDP, from 11.8% of GDP in 2011 to 6% of GDP in 2015. The services and income accounts will remain firmly in deficit, related as they are to trade and oil-sector profit repatriation, respectively. Private transfers from the large Nigerian diaspora will remain sizeable, but will be slow to recover in 2011 owing to the impact of the global economic slowdown on Nigerians working in the West. However, they will pick up in 2012-15 amid a healthier global context.