Country Report Nigeria February 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Exchange rates

The CBN is expected to continue to favour maintaining the value of the local currency, the naira, within a narrow band, with periodic adjustments to avoid a further significant running-down of foreign-exchange reserves. Relatively strong oil prices in the forecast period-albeit falling from 2012-should allow the maintenance of this policy, although the reform-minded CBN governor is likely to want greater liberalisation of the currency markets once the current instability in Nigeria's financial sector has been addressed. In addition, the government and the CBN are keen to avoid the further running-down of foreign-exchange reserves, which plummeted in 2009-10. Coupled with the expected moderation in oil prices during 2012-15, periodic downward adjustments to the currency are expected throughout the forecast period to avoid further pressure on reserves. From an average of N155:US$1 in 2011, the naira is expected to slide to N177:US$1 in 2015. Greater currency liberalisation will also erode the parallel market premium.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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