Although uncertainty related to elections and the global economy may affect growth levels in 2011, Nigeria is expected to enjoy a period of robust economic expansion averaging over 6.5% per year during the forecast period. However, this is below the double-digit levels needed if the country is to meet the goal of becoming one of the world's top-20 economies by 2020. This is primarily a result of the dire state of Nigeria's infrastructure, notably the electricity supply. Furthermore, continuing flare-ups of political unrest in the Niger Delta-despite growing efforts by the government to find a solution to some of the issues involved-will constrain growth in the vital oil and gas sector throughout the forecast period. There will, however, be some increases in oil and gas production as new deep-water oilfields open or expand. These are less susceptible to action by militias than the onshore fields, but they will not be immune.

With oil production having contracted in 2005-09 owing to the troubles in the Delta, it has been non-oil growth that has driven the economy forward. This will continue to be the case in 2011-15. The services sector will be a major contributor, particularly from the dynamic telecommunications sector, but also from the construction of both privately and publicly financed infrastructure. The contribution of the banking sector-a major source of growth in recent years-will be more muted in the early part of the forecast period as the sector recovers from the troubles of 2009. The agriculture sector has also performed well in recent years, with food production increasing steadily. Agriculture will remain an important sector throughout the forecast period, not only as a contributor to overall economic growth, but also as a major employer. The manufacturing sector will continue to struggle owing to dire infrastructure and strong Asian competition.

On an expenditure basis, growth in public consumption will remain significant as robust oil prices allow the government to expand its infrastructure development programme, but will be down on the levels seen during the 2009-10 fiscal expansion aimed at stimulating the economy. Gross fixed investment will remain centred on the oil and gas sector, but will be below potential because of the fragile security situation. Private consumption may be hit by a drop in confidence early in the forecast period, around election time, but will rebound strongly in line with the broadly favourable outlook for economic prospects. Export growth is also likely to improve as the forecast period progresses, with production improving on the back of greater offshore development and slightly better security onshore. However, exports will continue to be outpaced by import growth as capital imports for infrastructure and consumer imports both increase quickly.

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