Presidential, legislative and state-level elections are due to be held in April 2011. The mishandling of voter registration indicates that the Independent National Electoral Commission is not as well prepared as it needs to be to ensure the smooth conduct of free and fair polls. Nigeria has a poor record for holding free and fair elections-something that seems unlikely to be resolved this time round, with violence and malpractice likely to feature once again.

Given the enormous advantages of incumbency and the fact that the PDP is the only truly national party in Nigeria, Mr Jonathan is the strong favourite to win the presidential election. His position as front-runner is buttressed by the inability of opposition parties to form a united front against the PDP. The fact that Mr Jonathan's main rivals in the election are three northerners means that any northern vote fuelled by resentment of the PDP's choice of presidential candidate is likely to be divided. Nonetheless, the PDP may not dominate the elections to the extent that it did previous presidential polls, especially if dissident factions in the PDP were to switch their backing to an opposition candidate. As it is, out of Mr Jonathan's three main opponents, a former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari, represents the biggest challenge. Mr Buhari has effective political machinery in the north and he is popular among some in the south who believe that his austere, anti-corruption outlook is what Nigeria needs at the moment.

An alternative scenario, albeit with a low probability attached, is that the political acrimony degenerates to such an extent that the military attempts to seize power. A coup cannot be ruled out-there have been numerous periods of military rule in Nigeria since independence-but popular support would not be forthcoming. The current situation, although unfortunate, is nowhere near as desperate as the systemic breakdowns that led to previous coups.