Outlook for 2011-15

• The approaching elections, due in April 2011, is likely to usher in a period of political instability that will probably see a significant increase in political tension during the early part of the forecast period.
• Nevertheless, the central scenario is that the president, Goodluck Jonathan, and his party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), will win the elections and remain in power for the duration of the forecast period.
• Economic expansion will be buoyed by robust performance in the non-oil sector. Real GDP growth is expected to average over 6.5% in 2011-15.
• However, such a growth rate is still below the double-digit levels needed if the country is to meet the goal of becoming one of the world's top-20 economies by 2020.
• Loose fiscal and monetary policy, combined with higher food import prices, is expected to mean that inflation will come down only gradually during the forecast period, from 12.7% in 2011 to 9.1% in 2015.
• Current-account surpluses are expected throughout the forecast period as oil exports remain robust. However, import growth for infrastructure development will be rapid, leading to a steady decline in the surplus in 2012-15.

Monthly review

• The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) completed the registration of voters on February 7th,, an exercise that was marred by poor planning, raising doubts about the readiness for the April polls.
• President Jonathan said at the end of January that he plans to serve for just one term if elected at the April 9th presidential poll, a declaration that could help appease some of his political opponents in the north.
• The latest wave of sectarian violence in Nigeria's central Plateau state has shown little evident signs of abating.
• The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised its benchmark interest rate to 6.5% from 6.25% as part of measures to tighten liquidity and rein in inflation.
• Nigeria's commercial banks agreed on February 1st to triple their lending to the agricultural sector from around 1% to at least 3% of loans amid mounting concerns about the failure of banks to increase lending to the real sector.
• Nigeria's real GDP grew by 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010, up from 7.9% recorded in the previous quarter, while overall growth for the year was estimated at 7.9%.
• Nigeria issued a US$500m debut international bond on January 21st that was 2.5 times oversubscribed.