Country Report Bhutan May 2011

Summary

Outlook for 2011-12

The king, Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuck, will oversee Bhutan's continued adjustment to the political change that occurred in 2007-08, when the transition from absolute monarchy to parliamentary democracy was completed. India will continue to wield enormous influence over the country. The Bhutanese government will attempt to implement a newly formalised economic policy that seeks to generate employment, diversify the base of Bhutan's economy, promote entrepreneurship and growth, increase economic self-reliance and raise merchandise exports. Government policy will also continue to honour the concept of "gross national happiness". Economic growth will continue to be driven by large hydropower projects, but the government will also try to encourage the development of other fast-growing sectors, which include financial services and tourism.

The political scene

The Election Commission of Bhutan (ECB) has set May 24th as the day for electing local government officials in 205 districts. The ECB has also set out some rules for the election campaign. The government plans to put forward an amendment to the 2007 Land Act of Bhutan in the forthcoming session of parliament.

Economic policy

In late March the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA, the central bank) said that it will soon allow the establishment of Bhutan's first credit-rating agency. In February the government's holding company, Druk Holding and Investments, which holds shares in numerous companies and enterprises on behalf of the authorities, issued a draft divestment strategy outlining the guidelines for divesting shares in state-owned companies.

The domestic economy

In April the government finally decided that it would divest some of its holdings in the Bank of Bhutan. Divestment has been held up for more than two years because of a tussle between the government and the RMA.

Foreign trade and payments

According to the latest figures from the RMA, Bhutan's merchandise trade deficit more than trebled during fiscal year 2009/10 (July-June), rising to the equivalent of 22.8% of GDP, from 7.9% in 2008/09. At the end of 2009/10 Bhutan's external debt outstanding totalled US$840.7m, 5.8% higher than the US$794.3m at end-2008/09. Remittances from Bhutanese living abroad reached their highest level ever in 2009/10, exceeding Nu192m (US$4m).

Basic data

Land area

38,394 sq km

Population

634,982 (2005 census)

Thimphu (capital) 98,676 (2005 census estimate)

Climate

The tropical climate in southern Bhutan changes dramatically as the mountains rise steeply to altitudes beyond the tree line, reaching permanently snow-covered regions in the northern Himalayan region

Weather in Thimphu (altitude 2,320 metres)

Hottest month, August, 13.5-30°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, January, -8°C to 20.5°C; driest month, November, negligible average monthly rainfall; wettest month, October, 134mm average rainfall

Languages

There are four main language groups and 18 dialects. The national language, Dzongkha, is spoken in the western part of the country, Bumthang-kha in the centre, Sharchop-kha in the east and Nepali in the south. English is the main language in use in schools and is widely used, especially by the urban population

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Ngultrum = 100 cheltrum. The ngultrum is pegged at parity to the Indian rupee. Average exchange rate in 2010: Nu45.7:US$1

Time

6 hours ahead of GMT

Fiscal year

July 1st-June 30th

Public holidays

January 2nd (Winter solstice); February 14th-15th (New Year); February 20th (Day of Offering); February 21st (Birthday of the fifth king); April 23rd (Zhabdrung Kuchoe); May 2nd (Birthday of the third king); May 27th (Lord Buddha's Parinivana); June 21st (Birthday of Guru Rinpoche); July 15th (Anniversary of the first sermon of Lord Buddha); September 13th (Thimphu Drubchen); September 17th-19th (Thimphu Tshechu); October 17th (Dashain); November 1st (Descending Day of Lord Buddha); November 11th-13th (Birthday of the fourth king); December 17th (National Day)

Political structure

Official name

Kingdom of Bhutan

Form of state

Constitutional monarchy. Legislative power lies with the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament), while executive power is vested in the cabinet, led by the prime minister. The constitution, which was initiated in draft form by the king in 2003, was published in 2005 and formally adopted by parliament in July 2008

National elections

Parliament comprises the 47-member National Assembly and a 25-member National Council (the upper house). Of the seats in the upper house, 20 are elected and the remainder are appointed by the king. An election for the upper house in December 2007 filled 15 of the 25 seats; five more members of the chamber were elected in January 2008, and five were appointed by the king in March of that year. A lower house election was held in the same month

National government

The king is head of state but can be required to abdicate by a two-thirds vote in the National Assembly. The ten-member cabinet was chosen in April 2008

Main political organisations

Druk Phuensum Tshogpa; People's Democratic Party

Head of state (dragon king): Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuck

Prime minister: Jigme Thinley

Key ministers

Agriculture: Pema Gyamtsho

Economic affairs: Khandu Wangchuk

Education: Thakur Singh Powdyel

Finance: Wangdi Norbu

Foreign affairs: Ugyen Tshering

Health: Zangley Dukpa

Home & cultural affairs: Minjur Dorji

Information & communications: Nandalal Rai

Labour & human resources: Dorji Wangdi

Works & human settlement: Yeshey Zimba

Speaker of the National Assembly

Jigme Tshultim

Chief justice

Sonan Tobgye

Central bank chairman

Wangdi Norbu

Economic structure: Annual indicators

 2006a2007a2008a2009a2010b
GDP at market prices (Nu bn)c41.245.447.857.162.5
GDP (US$ bn)0.91.11.11.21.4
Real GDP growth (%)c10.57.1-2.715.27.0
Consumer price inflation (av; %)5.05.28.34.36.1
Population (m)0.70.70.70.7b0.7
Exports of goods fob (US$ m)308.1612.7555.6509.4
Imports of goods fob (US$ m)-439.7-590.4-559.1-620.8
Current-account balance (US$ m)-79.1143.4-26.8-112.9
Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)545.3699.1764.8890.9b
Exchange rate (av) Nu:US$45.3141.3543.5148.4145.73a
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Fiscal years beginning July 1st.

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Origins of gross domestic product 2009/10a% of totalComponents of gross domestic product 2009/10a% of total
Agriculture18.2Private consumption40.6
Industry42.0Government consumption22.9
Services39.8Fixed investment44.2
  Stockbuilding0.0
  Exports of goods & services69.4
  Imports of goods & services77.1
    
Principal exports 2007/08a% of totalPrincipal imports 2007/08a% of total
Electricity51.4Mineral products28.5
Base metals24.4Base metals17.0
Mineral products10.1Machinery, mechanical & electrical appliances11.9
Animal, vegetable fats & oils2.8Transport vehicles, aircraft & engines7.6
    
Main destinations of exports 2009/10a% of totalMain origins of imports 2009/10a% of total
India95.1India73.8
Bangladesh2.8Japan4.7
Singapore0.9Singapore4.1
a Fiscal years July-June.

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Economic structure: Quarterly indicators

 20082009   2010  
 4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr
Prices        
Consumer prices (av; 2005=100)121.6121.6125.1126.0126.5128.5132.8n/a
Consumer prices (% change, year on year)9.17.23.03.44.05.76.2n/a
Financial indicators        
Exchange rate Nu:US$ (av)48.849.848.848.446.645.945.646.5
Exchange rate Nu:US$ (end-period)48.550.947.948.046.745.146.644.9
Deposit rate (av; %)3.3n/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Lending rate (av; %)n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Money market rate (av; %)4.8n/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
M1 (end-period; national definition; Nu m)16,23318,08118,37519,44722,62323,73122,53825,949
M1 (% change, year on year)-7.114.427.7-4.739.431.222.733.4
M2 (end-period; national definition; Nu m)31,10232,36832,69437,35444,54844,52242,56951,281
M2 (% change, year on year)31.240.843.529.043.237.530.237.3
Sectoral trends        
Tourist arrivals (no.)11,4783,6626,770n/an/an/an/an/a
Tourism revenue (US$ m)17.34.78.8n/an/an/an/an/a
Non-resident Bhutanese remittances (US$ m)n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Foreign reserves (US$ m)        
Reserves excl gold (end-period)765702764839891889851981
Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics.

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Outlook for 2011-12: Political stability

More than three years after its first general election, Bhutan has made good progress in consolidating its position as a parliamentary democracy following centuries of rule by an absolute monarch. In the long term the country's democratic experiment is likely to be judged a success. At present, however, Bhutan is still awaiting the complete fulfilment of multiparty democracy, although the Economist Intelligence Unit does not believe that this should be regarded as an indictment of the country, given the momentous scale of the transition Bhutan voluntarily undertook. Tensions persist between the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) and the National Council (the upper house), and also, more broadly, between the three branches of government (the executive, legislature and judiciary), but on the whole Bhutan is being governed well and effectively, and the risk of political instability is extremely low.

Having progressed beyond the inaugural March 2008 general election, Bhutan held its first mayoral elections in January 2011. Turnout averaged around 50%, according to exit polls, but there appear to have been irregularities in the voter registration process (for example, only around 7% of the population of the capital, Thimphu, had registered to vote).

Aside from the problems associated with the attempt to foster a culture of democracy among a population that has not shown itself to be particularly enthusiastic about it, the government faces other challenges. Foremost among these is the difficulty of defining the roles of the executive and legislative branches of government in a country without a democratic history. Divisions between the two houses of parliament have emerged, and these are unlikely to be resolved without a judicial review of the matters involved. Issues relating to the independence of the judiciary have also proven to be contentious, suggesting that the process of establishing the remit and scope of the authority of various government bodies is likely to be protracted and at times acrimonious. Nevertheless, recent parliamentary debate has demonstrated that the two chambers are capable of compromise. This will ensure that necessary legislative reforms are enacted, albeit perhaps more slowly than would be the case were the country's democratic institutions more mature.

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

The first ever general election in Bhutan was held in 2008. The next election for the lower house is due by March 2013. One of the country's major parties, the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT), which won an overwhelming victory in the general election, is and will remain the dominant political force in Bhutan. It won 45 of the 47 lower house seats in the 2008 election, and we expect it to secure another large majority at the next poll. In this regard, the party will be helped by the fact that it is made up of the political "old guard" from the pre-democracy era, and so it has been able to consolidate its position in power easily, and also by the fact that the electorate has been relatively uncritical of the government. However, the scale of the DPT's victory might be more modest at the next election, as by then the country's voters may have become more adjusted to the idea of multiparty democracy and thus more willing to challenge the political status quo. Bhutan will complete its first ever local government elections in May.

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

Relations with India are likely to remain broadly constructive. India is Bhutan's largest trade partner by a wide margin, and it is a crucial source of foreign aid and investment. Although tensions occasionally arise over the issue of Bhutanese refugees living in neighbouring Nepal, and the level of responsibility that India (as the major regional power) should accept in efforts to resolve the dispute, bilateral ties remain close.

Bhutan will continue to hold talks with the Chinese government, which has built six roads close to the northern border of Bhutan, at least three of which encroach on Bhutanese territory, according to the government. Official trade between China and Bhutan is modest, totalling less than US$10m a year. Bhutan's strategic geographical position will remain of much greater interest to China than its commercial potential.

Outlook for 2011-12: Policy trends

Bhutan's economy is very small and is highly dependent on the export of hydroelectricity, primarily to neighbouring India. The implementation of the tenth five-year plan (July 2008-June 2013) and a new economic development policy (EDP) will be major challenges for the country. The EDP, which was finalised in March 2010 after more than two years of work and discussion, is the country's first formal economic development strategy. Its main goals are to generate employment, diversify Bhutan's economic base, promote entrepreneurship and GDP growth, increase economic self-reliance and raise merchandise exports in the period to 2020. One-quarter of the document details various financial and tax incentives designed to boost service sectors, and in particular the so-called green sector. This latter initiative is in line with the country's strong emphasis on sustainable development and its overriding concern that economic growth should not be achieved at the cost of environmental degradation. The government will also continue to emphasise Bhutan's concept of "gross national happiness" (GNH). In 2008 a think-tank, the Centre for Bhutan Studies, established a GNH index that aims to "reflect GNH values, set benchmarks, and track policies and [the] performance of the country".

Outlook for 2011-12: Monetary policy

The Royal Monetary Authority (RMA, the central bank) has no explicit monetary policy. Rather, it states that policy is confined to supporting the peg of Bhutan's currency, the ngultrum, to the Indian rupee. The RMA will continue to take the steps necessary to support the peg, including ensuring the availability of rupees on demand for exchange with the ngultrum and "sterilising any persistent growth in liquidity to forestall a possible build-up of inflationary pressures, a weakening of the balance of payments and a contingent effect on the financial market".

Outlook for 2011-12: International assumptions

Bhutan: international assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2009201020112012
GDP growth
World-0.74.94.34.2
US-2.62.92.92.5
China9.210.39.08.7
EU27-4.21.81.91.7
Exchange rates
US$ effective (2000=100)97.093.989.591.2
¥:US$93.787.981.881.0
US$:€1.391.331.361.30
Financial indicators
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate0.260.260.320.70
¥ 3-month money market rate0.390.170.350.60
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)61.979.6101.085.0
Gold (US$/troy oz)973.01,224.71,367.31,232.5
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)-20.411.730.3-12.1
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)-25.644.528.0-10.7
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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Outlook for 2011-12: Economic growth

Hydroelectric projects and the export of electricity to India will continue to underpin Bhutan's economic growth in the forecast period. Real GDP growth (at factor cost) rose to 6.7% in fiscal year 2009/10 (July-June), from 4.7% in 2008/09. The figures shown in the tables are for GDP growth on an expenditure basis, which measured economic growth in 2009/10 at 15.2% year on year, compared with a 2.7% year-on-year decline in 2008/09. GDP growth (on an expenditure measure) will fall from this high base in 2010/11, to an estimated annual average of 7%. It will remain stable, at 6.9% a year in 2011/12­2012/13. Industrial development, as well as a revival in tourism in 2011-12 following a sharp decline in tourist arrivals in 2009, will also support economic expansion. In the light of the fact that the poverty level in Bhutan remains high, at 23%, despite years of healthy GDP growth, the authorities are keen to promote greater regional development. To this end, officials will continue to encourage fast-growing industries that offer potential employment opportunities, such as tourism, financial services and information technology.

Outlook for 2011-12: Exchange rates

The ngultrum is pegged at parity to the Indian rupee. We expect the rupee to average Rs45:US$1 in 2011, representing nominal year-on-year appreciation of 1.7%. In 2012 we expect the Indian currency to continue appreciating against the US dollar, rising by 2.5% in nominal terms to average Rs43.9:US$1.

Outlook for 2011-12: External sector

Bhutan's trade deficit more than trebled during 2009/10 on the back of surging imports and only modest growth in exports (as hydroelectricity exports were constrained by an increase in domestic demand for hydropower). The trade deficit is expected to narrow in 2011 and 2012, as export growth accelerates on the back of strong economic growth in Bhutan's export markets, most notably in India. Grant inflows associated with the construction of new hydropower projects are also expected to remain strong in the forecast period. These two factors should help to lead to a narrowing of the current-account deficit. Inflows of development aid (in the form of loans), which have traditionally provided another pillar of support to the balance of payments, are expected to diminish as donor nations prioritise other countries that are seen as having a greater need for such funds, including nations that are beset by natural disasters and those that are facing acute civil unrest, and this will lead to a narrowing of the capital account surplus. The government estimates that Bhutan's external debt will have grown by 22% year on year in 2010/11, and we expect it to continue to rise throughout 2011-12. Loans for hydropower projects will account for most of that rise.

Outlook for 2011-12: Forecast summary

Bhutan: forecast summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2009a2010b2011c2012c
Real GDP growthd15.27.06.77.0
Gross fixed investment growthd24.07.28.07.8
Consumer price inflation (av)4.36.15.04.2
Lending interest rate14.5b14.514.514.5
Government balance (% of GDP)d-2.8b-6.0-9.2-12.3
Exchange rate Nu:US$ (av)48.4145.73a44.9743.87
Exchange rate Nu:US$ (end-period)46.6844.81a44.9743.87
Exchange rate Nu:¥100 (av)51.6651.82a51.2550.57
Exchange rate Nu:€ (av)67.4359.27a53.5250.45
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. d Fiscal years beginning July 1st.

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The political scene: Bhutan will hold its first local government election

The Election Commission of Bhutan (ECB) has set May 24th as the day for electing local government officials in 205 districts. On March 10th candidates interested in contesting were asked to obtain the necessary clearances required for filing their nominations by the deadline of April 15th. Between April 15th and April 25th nominations will be filed and candidates will be selected, after which campaigning will start. The newly elected officials will assume office on July 1st. Meanwhile, all existing local government bodies, including municipal and town committees, have been dissolved, effective from April 8th.

Many candidates have reported difficulties in obtaining clearances, however. Unlike in the past, when candidates were only required to produce around four documents, candidates for this election are required to produce numerous documents-such as a court affidavit, sales tax and asset declaration certificates, and audit clearances-before filing their nominations. Part of the problem is that the ECB had hoped to use a single-window clearance system, which would allow candidates to obtain all the documents from a single point, rather than going to a different government department to procure each document. However, the relevant agencies were unable to come up with an online system for this. Many candidates who had expected to use the single-window system are now worried that they may not be able to obtain all the required documents before the nomination day.

Some constituencies may even end up without a candidate for this reason, or because the constituency does not have an eligible candidate. If that happens, the ECB will postpone until further notice the election for that constituency. To prevent such an eventuality, and also to increase the number of voters in a constituency, the ECB has said that a voter whose census status is confirmed in a given constituency on the date of filing of nomination papers will be considered eligible to be nominated as a candidate for the elections, or to vote in that constituency. More than 200 voters and candidates have already transferred their census status to the constituency of their choice.

The ECB has also set out some rules for the election campaign. It has set a ceiling of Nu50,000 (about US$1,100) per candidate for campaign expenses. During the campaign period common gatherings will also be arranged at which all candidates can speak, thus removing the need for candidates to organise public meetings separately. However, candidates will be allowed to conduct door-to-door campaigns. Members of parliament have been discouraged from making trips or official tours to their constituencies until May 25th; they, as well as religious personalities and political party members, have also been asked not to campaign directly or indirectly on behalf of any candidate. A total of 1,101 polling stations will be established for the elections.

Given that these elections have been delayed for over two years, in November 2010 the ECB waived as a "special one-time measure" the requirement that a candidate should have been registered in a municipality for a minimum of one year in order to contest the elections. Although some have criticised this waiver as unconstitutional, the government has supported the ECB on the grounds that it will help encourage participation in the country's first-ever local government elections.

The political scene: The government will amend the Land Act

The government plans to table an amendment to the Land Act of Bhutan 2007 in the forthcoming session of parliament. Although Bhutan has had a Land Act for over 30 years, the government has found that its complexities, inconsistencies, loopholes and erratic implementation have made it inadequate to protect and conserve agricultural land. The government hopes that the amended act will correct these problems and curb both unplanned and illegal developments and land conversions.

Although the country's existing Land Act stipulates that the conversion of wetland without the approval of the Ministry of Agriculture is illegal, over the past four years Bhutan has lost around 700 acres of wetland to infrastructure development-including the building of schools, power projects, roads and housing-as well as to land conversion for agriculture and other purposes. It has lost an additional 323 acres of land to illegal conversions and natural disasters.

According to observers, at this rate the continued loss of agricultural land could seriously impact Bhutan's goal of increasing national food production and achieving 70% food sufficiency. According to the 1997 land use survey, Bhutan's total arable land was only 7.8% of its total land. The expansion of agricultural land is already limited by the constitutional directive that the country must maintain at least 60% forest cover.

Economic policy: The central bank will improve credit-rating mechanisms

In late March the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA, the central bank) said that it will soon allow the establishment of Bhutan's first credit-rating agency. The agency, to be called the Credit Rating Agency (CRA), will rate organisations, institutions and individuals, categorising borrowers on the basis of the strength of their cash flows, reputations and other parameters. Banks will use the CRA's ratings to sanction loans.

A good rating from the CRA might even permit borrowers to receive loans without collateral. Although the Bhutanese debt and capital markets are small, the RMA is keen to establish the CRA to help ensure that small borrowers get access to funds on the basis of a proper credit rating rather than only on the basis of collateral. Both the government and the central bank are keen to develop the industrial sector, given the Bhutanese economy's heavy dependence on hydroelectric projects and foreign aid. As part of this endeavour, they would like to develop the small and medium-sized enterprise sector, which is currently poorly served by financial institutions, precisely because of its general lack of collateral. The government and the central bank would also like to develop Bhutan's capital market in order to provide alternative funding to businesses apart from bank borrowing.

The Credit Information Bureau (CIB), a part of the RMA, already provides detailed information on borrowers, loan repayments and defaults. The CIB started in 1997, and the bureau has been collecting and sorting data from banks and financial institutions ever since. As the CIB now has a large data bank, it has, since January, been acting as a centre for businesses to obtain clearance when applying for a loan. Before sanctioning a loan, financial institutions had been required to obtain clearance certificates from other financial institutions that had dealt with the same clients, certifying from their experience and data that they were creditworthy. Since January the RMA has directed financial institutions to stop issuing physical loan clearance certificates and to use instead the CIB's central information-sharing platform to access its detailed client information. Individual clients or companies can also get a self-inquiry report through the CIB to find out their creditworthiness. The RMA charges a fee for the use of the CIB. The RMA says it will soon establish the CIB as a separate, autonomous entity.

The CIB is an information-sharing mechanism, which does not issue a rating or opinion, but rather puts all the information in one place and facilitates information-sharing. Its self-enquiry report will allow borrowers to see their own information. The CRA, in contrast, will be a proper credit-rating agency that will issue a rating informed by its opinion and assessment of the borrower.

Economic policy: The government considers reducing its shareholdings

In February Druk Holding and Investments (DHI, the government's holding company), which holds shares in numerous companies and enterprises on behalf of the government, issued a draft divestment strategy outlining the guidelines for divesting shares in state-owned companies. Ahead of formulating a final divestment strategy, the DHI is now discussing this framework with the Ministry of Finance, which will play a key role in the divestment process and any decisions related to it.

According to the draft, the government's final divestment strategy will bring clarity in three main areas. The first will be to identify and classify companies as strategic or non-strategic, based on their importance to national security and their commercial and social value. Second, the strategy will set limits up to which stakes will be divested for different companies. Third, the strategy will outline the exact divestment process.

The government wants to proceed with divestment to raise funds, to move out of industries and economic sectors that the private sector is capable of handling on its own, and to exit non-strategic businesses. As the government has initiated large new projects, such as building a new "education city", the DHI's responsibilities have been growing. Moreover, many state-owned companies require more funds. For example, the national airline, Druk Air, currently requires around US$60m to buy two more planes. The DHI already has a list of commercial projects for which sufficient funds are not available, but divestment would provide resources. The government and the DHI are therefore examining divesting stakes in those projects and companies where the DHI's involvement is not essential.

It is likely that those companies that are identified as non-strategic would top the divestment list. These could include companies such as Bhutan National Bank, Bhutan Board Products, Bhutan Ferro Alloys, Dungsam Polymers and the Royal Insurance Corporation of Bhutan. Although governments often regard the airline and telecommunications industries as strategic, companies such as Druk Air or Bhutan Telecom may be classified as non-strategic, since Bhutan already has private competitors in the same business.

As to the method of divestment, one key option will be to sell shares on foreign stockmarkets, especially in India. The DHI is studying the costs and benefits of this option. Another option would be to allow foreign investors to invest in Bhutanese companies on the local stockmarket-something the Royal Securities Exchange of Bhutan does not currently allow.

The domestic economy: Bank of Bhutan will launch an IPO

In April the government finally decided that it would divest some of its holdings in the Bank of Bhutan (BoB). Divestment has been held up for more than two years because of a tussle between the government and the RMA.

Under the RMA's regulations, all banks in Bhutan must become public limited companies. Accordingly, the BoB was meant to float its shares in an initial public offering (IPO) but did not do so, despite reminders from the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA, the central bank) over the last two years. The BoB is the country's oldest and biggest bank, set up in 1962 (before the establishment of the central bank) as a joint venture between the State Bank of India (SBI, a commercial bank owned by the Indian government, which held a 40% stake) and the government of Bhutan (with a 60% stake). Subsequently, the government increased its shareholding to 80%, while SBI's share fell to 20%.

The RMA wanted the BoB to float about 30% of the government's holding, which amounts to about 24% of the bank's total shares. Under this plan, the government would retain a 56% stake. However, the Ministry of Finance and several members of parliament wanted the BoB not to go public at all, citing provisions in the Public Finance Act, which state that the government's share in a state-owned enterprise would not be sold without the express written approval of the cabinet. The RMA argued that the Financial Institutions Act empowers it to regulate the circumstances and manner of the licensing of banks.

Now settling the matter, in a letter dated April 4th and addressed to DHI, which owns the government's holdings in the bank, the finance ministry has stated that it has no objections to the divestment of government shares worth up to 25% of the BoB's total paid-up capital. According to the RMA, all preparations for the divestment have been completed, and the stake sale is expected to take place on July 1st.

Meanwhile, the BoB has been paying a penalty of Nu5,000 (US$110) a day to the RMA since November 10th 2010, after it failed to meet a final November 5th deadline to submit its prospectus for the IPO.

Foreign trade and payments: Surging imports lead to a ballooning trade deficit

According to the latest figures from the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA, the central bank), Bhutan's merchandise trade deficit more than trebled during fiscal year 2009/10 (July-June), rising to Nu13.9bn (US$314m, or 22.8% of GDP), from Nu4.3bn (7.9% of GDP) in 2008/09. The reasons were a sharp rise in imports, coupled with only a slight growth in exports. Imports rose by 34.7% year on year in 2009/10, while exports rose by only 3%. In contrast, in the previous year (2008/09), imports had risen by 7% and exports by 2%.

The surge in imports in 2009/10 was largely on account of growth in imports of intermediate and capital goods. Imports of machinery, mechanical equipment and appliances, as well as of base metals and base metal products in particular, showed higher growth in 2009/10 than in 2008/09, contributing to the sharp rise in imports.

The negligible growth in exports was attributable to the weak performance of hydropower and agricultural exports. Although hydropower production remained high, growing domestic industrial demand reduced the amount of surplus power available for export. This poor export performance was somewhat offset by better growth in exports of mineral and mineral-based products, as well as of other manufactured exports.

India remains Bhutan's largest trade partner and its principal destination for both exports and imports, continuing the pattern of the last few years. During 2009/10 India accounted for 93.5% of Bhutan's exports and 77.7% of imports. Hydropower exports to India are still Bhutan's most important overall export, accounting for 39.2% of total exports during the year. India is followed as an export destination by Bangladesh (3.2% of all exports) and Hong Kong (2.8%). After India, the next-largest import sources are Singapore (2.9% of all imports) and Japan (2.2%). Imports from India grew by 20.3% year on year in 2009/10, while imports from other countries grew by 102.2% (from a much lower base). Exports to India grew only by 0.6% during the year, while exports to other countries grew by 43.5%.

Foreign trade and payments: The external debt burden is growing

According to the latest figures from the RMA, Bhutan's external debt burden continues to grow. At the end of fiscal year 2009/10 Bhutan's external debt outstanding totalled US$840.7m, 5.8% higher than the US$794.3m at end-2008/09. The rise was driven by growth of 1.7% in convertible-currency debt, as well as 6.4% growth in rupee-denominated debt. However, Bhutan's overall debt/GDP ratio fell from 70.4% in 2008/09 to 63.5% in 2009/10, given strong GDP growth and some increase in capital repayments.

Of Bhutan's total external debt outstanding at the end of 2009/10, rupee-denominated debt, mainly for hydropower development, made up 58.1%, while the remaining 41.9% was in convertible-currency loans, both in concessional lending and private debt. A large part of Bhutan's rupee borrowing comes from a short-term overdraft facility from the State Bank of India (SBI, a commercial bank owned by the Indian government) at an interest rate of 9.2% per year. Borrowings under this facility made up 66.7% of all rupee loan disbursements during the year.

Bhutan's debt-service ratio (debt service payments as a percentage of exports of goods and services) fell slightly to 29.5% in 2009/10 from 30.5% in 2008/09. During the year, Bhutan increased repayments of principal on both concessional and private convertible currency debt, by 10.6% compared with 2008/09. Debt servicing on rupee obligations remained high due to repayments towards the SBI's overdraft facility. Bhutan's rupee debt service ratio remained high, at 31.5% during the year, against 32.7% in the previous year. Meanwhile, debt servicing on convertible-currency loans also increased, from 16.4% to 19.9% in 2009/10.

Of Bhutan's total rupee debt outstanding, 80.2% was public debt on hydropower lending for the Kurichhu, Tala and Punatsangchhu I hydropower projects. Within the convertible-currency loan portfolio, concessional public and publicly guaranteed debt accounted for 96.6% (the rest was outstanding external debt of the private sector).

The government of India continues to be Bhutan's biggest creditor, with total outstanding debt at Rs21.3bn (about US$481m) at the end of 2009/10. It was followed by the Asian Development Bank (US$136.4m), the World Bank (US$107.7m) and the government of Austria (the equivalent of US$57.9m)

Foreign trade and payments: Remittances reach a record high

Remittances from Bhutanese living overseas reached their highest level ever in 2009/10, exceeding Nu192m (US$4m). The money was remitted by Bhutanese living in the US, UK, Japan, EU, Canada and India, but the largest share of the remittances by far-fully 96%-came from those living in the US. The amount represents a nearly seven-fold increase since 2002, when records first began.

This amount only includes money sent through financial institutions, but a substantial amount of money is also brought in directly by people flying into Bhutan. Apart from sending money for their families, many non-resident Bhutanese have sent money home in order to buy land-one reason that land prices are escalating sharply.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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