Country Report Comoros June 2011

The political scene: Union-island relations are likely to remain weak

On the surface, at least, Mr Sambi seems keen to make the most of his tenure. A deal brokered by the African Union did not specify the date for the transfer of power, stating merely that Mr Sambi must step down before May 26th 2011 (12 months after his term was originally due to end). By choosing the last possible date to leave-and by going on state visits in the final weeks of his tenure-Mr Sambi is likely to have reinforced suspicions among opponents that he is leaving office unwillingly, and that he will try to continue to wield power from behind the scenes. That Mr Dhoinine is Mr Sambi's approved successor will do nothing to allay these concerns, and there is a risk that the new Union president will simply "inherit" the mistrust that has characterised Mr Sambi's relations with the island administrations. Comoros is also entering uncharted territory, in that this is the first time that a politician from Mohéli will be Union president. Mohéli is the smallest and most marginalised of Comoros's islands, and Mr Dhoinine may seek to use the presidency to direct more resources towards his home base. The question is how politicians from Anjouan and Grande Comore will react to any such attempt. Previous experience suggests that they will not respond positively, notwithstanding the fact that end-2010 elections on both islands were won by supporters of Mr Sambi.

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