Country Report Comoros June 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Exchange rates

The Comorian franc has been loosely pegged to the euro at Cfr492:EUR1 over the past decade, and to the French franc before that. Comoros's foreign-exchange reserves stood at a comfortable 6.2 months of import cover at end-2010 (well above the benchmark of three months of import cover) and are expected to remain high, aided in part by further interim debt relief. The currency peg is therefore likely to be sustained at the prevailing rate. The euro is expected to weaken against the dollar over the remainder of the forecast period as the fiscal problems in the euro zone persist. In line with this, the Comorian franc is forecast to depreciate from Cfr360:US$1 in 2011 to Cfr390:US$1 in 2012. However, there are significant risks of sharp movements in either direction.

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