Country Report Comoros June 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Fiscal policy

The government will face pressure to improve public finance management and restore fiscal discipline as conditions for reaching HIPC completion. It will be aided by interim debt relief, which will reduce its interest payments. However, progress in reforming parastatals is likely to be slow. The government will also find it difficult to lower the wage bill in the face of strong union pressure; the high cost of running parallel island and Union administrations; and the difficulties of reducing overstaffing given that unemployment is already high and there is little formal employment outside the public sector. Nevertheless, the deficit is expected to decline, largely because of improvements in tax administration. Overall, the deficit is forecast to moderate from an estimated 1.6% of GDP in 2010 to 1.4% of GDP in 2011 and 1.2% of GDP in 2012. Modest but chronic fiscal deficits have boosted external public debt as a proportion of GDP to roughly 50%, and the IMF has pronounced Comoros at risk of debt distress. Comoros should receive full HIPC debt relief in mid-2012, which would restore its debt sustainability towards the end of the forecast period.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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