Following months of uncertainty and acrimony over the electoral calendar, political tensions in Comoros have receded, although recent improvements in political stability remain precarious. The elections for Union president and the governors of the three islands have taken place smoothly, in line with an agreement brokered by the African Union (AU) in June 2010. Ikililou Dhoinine-the candidate backed by the current federal president, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, and his Baobab coalition-has won the federal election. Under the AU-brokered agreement, Mr Sambi is to step down by May 26th 2011 (12 months after his term was originally due to end). There is a small risk that Mr Sambi will try to hold onto power beyond this point-which would lead to renewed political turmoil-although this looks increasingly unlikely.

There is also some risk of renewed unrest in Mohéli-Comoros's smallest and most marginalised island-from which Mr Dhoinine hails, and to which the presidency is due to rotate for the first time in Comoros's history. (Under the 2001 constitution, the Union presidency rotates between the three islands-Grand Comore, Anjouan and Mohéli-every four years.) Mr Sambi is not popular in Mohéli-the opposition won three out of four seats there in the parliamentary election in late 2009, and an opponent of Mr Sambi was elected governor of Mohéli in late 2010. This has cast doubt on the credibility of the presidential primaries, which were confined to Mohéli, and which were won by Mr Sambi's favoured candidate. Indeed, Mr Sambi's opponents allege that the elections were marred by fraud. Mr Dhoinine's victory may therefore be seen in Mohéli as having been orchestrated by Mr Sambi to preserve his political influence and circumvent a genuine transfer of power to the island. There has been no unrest in Mohéli so far, but there remains a risk that such unrest will emerge over the forecast period.

Inter-island disputes, a recurring theme in Comorian politics, are expected to persist, although their severity may decline. Mr Sambi's supporters have won the island elections on both Anjouan and Grande Comore, and their common allegiance to the Baobab coalition may make them more inclined to co-operate with Mr Dhoinine. However, much will depend on how the new federal government allocates resources across the three islands. If Mr Dhoinine is seen to be favouring Mohéli, disagreements between the island and federal administrations would be likely to re-emerge.

The risk of a coup-a lingering possibility in a country that has experienced 21 coups and coup attempts since gaining independence in 1975-has declined since August 2010, when the head of the army, General Salim Mohamed Amir, was placed under house arrest for his alleged complicity in the murder of a senior army officer, Lieutenant-Colonel Ayouba. General Amir's relationship with Mr Sambi was notoriously poor and his removal from office a few months before the election may have been devised to mitigate the risk of military intervention. Religious tensions could re-emerge. There has been no repeat of the attack on the facilities of a Catholic relief organisation in 2007, but it is possible that, with widespread poverty and an ineffectual government, the population may turn towards a radical form of political Islam.