We estimate that the current-account surplus reached US$43.1bn, or 33.8% of GDP, in 2010. Data from the Central Bank showed a surge in imports in the final quarter of the year. The preliminary trade data suggest that imports rose by just under 10% in 2010, after falling by 26% in 2009. As expected, oil export earnings rose strongly, up by 24% year on year. Kuwait is expected to continue to record large surpluses in 2011-15, but their share of GDP will fall as import demand picks up and oil prices fall in the latter half of the forecast period. Oil export earnings will continue to account for the bulk of export revenue, at US$76.6bn, or 93% of the total, in 2015. In 2011-15 we expect rising investment, by both the government and the private sector, to lead to strong growth in the import bill.

In contrast to the healthy trade surplus, Kuwait's non-merchandise balance is forecast to remain in deficit during the forecast period. Income credits are expected to grow steadily in 2011-15, chiefly reflecting earnings on the country's large stock of foreign assets. Higher income inflows will more than offset a rise in income debits (owing to rising profit repatriation by foreign firms), boosting the income surplus from an estimated US$8.6bn in 2010 to nearly US$13bn in 2015. However, the services deficit will widen sharply, as a rise in import-driven services debits outstrips a steady increase in services credits from overseas banking and investment services. In addition, the current transfers account will continue to show a large and growing deficit, as outward remittances from Kuwait's many foreign workers continue to increase.