The finance ministry produced final budget outturn figures for 2009 in its report on the 2011 budget. The report also included fiscal projections for the five-year plan, envisaging budget deficits averaging almost 6% a year as investment spending is ramped up. The actual deficit last year was 2.8% of GDP, compared with a target of 9% of GDP. The lower outturn resulted from higher than expected revenue and from underspending on investment. The report stated that current revenue was 20% above target (S£398bn, or US$8.7bn, compared with S£331bn) and that investment revenue was 6% higher than expected (£S135bn, compared with S£127bn). The third item of revenue listed in the report-foreign loans-was on target at S£12.3bn.
Budget balance | |||||
(% of GDP) | |||||
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009a | 2010b | |
Deficit | 2.62 | 2.36 | 1.93 | 2.80 | 6.06 |
a Preliminary. b Estimate. | |||||
Source: Ministry of Finance. |
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The report did not provide a breakdown of expenditure. Nor did it include a figure for actual expenditure. However, the report stated that the actual deficit was S£70.45bn, which implies that total expenditure was S£615bn, 10.2% lower than the target of S£685bn. The government has persistently struggled to meet its capital expenditure targets, which raises questions about whether it will be able to meet the ambitious spending objectives in the new five-year plan.
Budget projections in the five-year plan | |||||
(S£ bn) | |||||
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
Total expenditure | 835 | 920 | 1,012 | 1,115 | 1,227 |
Total revenue | 668 | 740 | 825 | 924 | 1,030 |
Deficit | 167 | 180 | 187 | 191 | 197 |
% of GDP | 5.78 | 6.00 | 5.80 | 5.50 | 5.40 |
Nominal GDP | 2,890 | 2,996 | 3,205 | 3,429 | 3,669 |
Source: Ministry of Finance. |
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