Country Report Syria January 2011

Economic policy: Fiscal deficit was only 2.8% of GDP in 2009

The finance ministry produced final budget outturn figures for 2009 in its report on the 2011 budget. The report also included fiscal projections for the five-year plan, envisaging budget deficits averaging almost 6% a year as investment spending is ramped up. The actual deficit last year was 2.8% of GDP, compared with a target of 9% of GDP. The lower outturn resulted from higher than expected revenue and from underspending on investment. The report stated that current revenue was 20% above target (S£398bn, or US$8.7bn, compared with S£331bn) and that investment revenue was 6% higher than expected (£S135bn, compared with S£127bn). The third item of revenue listed in the report-foreign loans-was on target at S£12.3bn.

Budget balance
(% of GDP)
 2006200720082009a2010b
Deficit2.622.361.932.806.06
a Preliminary. b Estimate.
Source: Ministry of Finance.

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The report did not provide a breakdown of expenditure. Nor did it include a figure for actual expenditure. However, the report stated that the actual deficit was S£70.45bn, which implies that total expenditure was S£615bn, 10.2% lower than the target of S£685bn. The government has persistently struggled to meet its capital expenditure targets, which raises questions about whether it will be able to meet the ambitious spending objectives in the new five-year plan.

Budget projections in the five-year plan
(S£ bn)
 20112012201320142015
Total expenditure8359201,0121,1151,227
Total revenue6687408259241,030
Deficit167180187191197
 % of GDP5.786.005.805.505.40
Nominal GDP2,8902,9963,2053,4293,669
Source: Ministry of Finance.

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© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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