In 2011-12 we expect export earnings to grow to an average of US$13.7bn, although this is still below the oil-price-related peak in 2008 of US$15.3bn. In recent years, drought has seriously constrained production, and therefore exports, of cotton and textiles. The drought has now eased, but the 2010/11 wheat crop is expected to be disappointing and a boll weevil infestation may affect the cotton crop.

Oil production is increasing at a number of small fields but declining at the larger, mature fields, with the net effect that output may pick up slightly in 2011, but will probably start falling thereafter, averaging 371,000 barrels/day in 2011-12. The net impact of changes in oil prices on the trade balance is limited, because Syria's imports of refined products are about equal in value to its exports of crude oil. Higher production in 2011, augmented by a rise in average international oil prices to US$82/barrel in 2011-12 from US$80/b in 2010 owing to a small recovery in global demand, will push up crude oil export revenue to an average of US$3.7bn in 2011-12, from US$3.6bn in 2010. Overall, the trade deficit will narrow slightly to an average of US$974m in 2011-12, or 1.5% of GDP.

The non-merchandise surplus is set to continue expanding in 2011-12 as Syria becomes increasingly integrated internationally. In particular, tourism receipts will grow strongly as a result of improving international relations and a developing tourism infrastructure. The non-merchandise surplus is expected to widen, causing the current-account surplus to grow slightly, to an average of US$663m (1% of GDP).