Consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.4% in 2011, as global commodity prices rise slightly and VAT is finally introduced-although food, a major component of the consumer price index, may be exempted. Inflation will then ease to 4.2% in 2012, as inflationary pressures, particularly on rents, fall because of a stabilisation or a small decline in the number of Iraqi nationals in Syria and declining global commodity prices, particularly of foodstuffs.