Country Report Syria January 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: In focus

IAEA increases pressure on Syria to co-operate

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has for the first time made a direct appeal to the Syrian government to respond to its repeated requests to allow inspectors from the agency to visit sites suspected of being used for undisclosed nuclear activity. The Reuters a news agency reported that the IAEA secretary-general, Yukiya Amano, had told a meeting of the agency's board in Vienna on December 2nd that he had written to the Syrian foreign minister, Walid al-Muallim, on November 18th asking the government to grant access to inspectors, and that he was still awaiting a response.

The IAEA dispatched a team of inspectors in June 2008 to examine the site of a building at Al Kibar, near the northern city of Deir al-Zor, that had been destroyed in an Israeli attack the previous September. The government denied allegations from the US administration that the building had housed a covert nuclear reactor. However, the IAEA team stated in a report issued in November 2008 that there were grounds for supposing that the US allegations were correct, but that further study of Al Kibar and other sites and of relevant documentation would be needed before a definitive conclusion could be reached (December 2008, The political scene).

Since then, the only significant development has been the change at the top of the IAEA: the outgoing secretary-general, Mohamed ElBaradei, had made clear his displeasure both with the US for failing to notify the IAEA of its suspicions about Syria's activities and with Israel for taking matters into its own hands. Mr Amano has focused his attention more closely on Syria's lack of co-operation. However, he has stopped short of mentioning what further action the IAEA may take if Syria continues to impede its inspections. The agency does have the option of invoking a special inspection mechanism to gain access to sites at short notice, and ultimately the matter can be referred to the UN Security Council. However, there does not appear to be any strong interest among Western powers to escalate matters, particularly given the improvement in Syria's relations with a number of important international and regional players, such as France and Saudi Arabia, over the past two years.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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