After a period of diplomatic isolation in 2005-07, Syria has developed steadily better relations with Western and regional states-notably Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Iraq. Consequently, the EU is now ready to sign a long-delayed Association Agreement and final negotiations are ongoing. Better relations are primarily due to perceptions that Syria is playing a more constructive role in Lebanon-helped by rumours that Syrian officials may not, after all, be implicated in the UN inquiry into the killing of Rafiq Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister. However, Hizbullah, a Lebanese militant group, may be implicated by the tribunal and could respond aggressively, endangering regional stability.

Relations with the US have also improved, and although US sanctions on Syria were renewed in May, the US has withdrawn its objections to Syria's accession to the World Trade Organisation. However, risks remain, in particular Syria's continued commitment to a strong relationship with Iran and its ongoing support for Hizbullah and Hamas, the Palestinian group that controls Gaza. An ongoing investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency into allegations that Syria has a nuclear programme also poses a threat-the agency has made repeated appeals for Syria to co-operate. There is also opposition to closer ties with Syria within the US Congress-a group of Republican senators are intent on blocking US concessions to Syria.

Talks with Israel are unlikely to yield results, despite recognition by the US that Syria is important to the peace process. Syria has expressed its willingness to resume peace talks if they are based on Israel's full withdrawal from the Golan Heights (captured from Syria in 1967). However, there is little popular or parliamentary support in Israel for a withdrawal. Syria would be required to end its strategic alliance with Iran and its support for Hizbullah and Hamas, as part of any peace agreement, which would be politically difficult but not impossible.