The president, Bashar al-Assad, and his ruling Baath party, are expected to retain their grip on the country, supported by key elements in the security services. The core of the elite is drawn largely from Mr Assad's Alawi sect, and any move against him would risk endangering its hold on power. Underlying resentment of Alawi rule and friction between reformers and conservatives mean that tensions within the regime are likely to persist.

Only limited progress is expected on political reform in 2011-12. Although some promised measures may be implemented, it is hard to envisage any steps being taken that would significantly diminish the Baath party's hold on power. Mr Assad initially advocated political reform when he came to power in 2000, but he has acknowledged that the pace of reform has been slow since then. He has pledged to increase popular participation in the political process by introducing a political parties law, which will create a second chamber of parliament, the Majlis al-Shura-in addition to the existing lower chamber, the Majlis al-Shaab. He also pledged to devise a local administration law to bring about greater decentralisation. Although there have been few visible signs of progress with these reforms, a reduction in international pressure on Syria owing to improved relations will make it easier for at least a few cosmetic changes to be made domestically. However, the security and intelligence services, which are pervasive and effective, will continue to arrest activists demanding democratic reform, and Syria faces numerous accusations of torture and unfair trial of political prisoners. The various opposition-in-exile groups and domestic critics are unlikely to pose a substantive threat to the government.