Country Report Saudi Arabia February 2011

The political scene: Saudis are cautious in face of regional uprisings

Saudi Arabia's response to the pressure for political change witnessed in different parts of the Arab world has fluctuated significantly. It initially hoped that the uprising in the North African state of Tunisia could be isolated, and it tried to present itself as assisting the process of change. However, when events in Tunisia began to influence developments in Egypt, and, more modestly, in some countries neighbouring Saudi Arabia, the Saudi government took a more hostile stance, alleging foreign manipulation of popular discontent.

In mid-January the outgoing Tunisian leader, Zine el-Abedine Ben Ali, was granted permission by the Saudi authorities to reside in the kingdom. The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud, presented the decision as being in line with the tradition of providing refuge for those who seek it, and as helping to end the crisis in the North African state. This theme was taken up in the Saudi press, which noted that refuge has previously been given to the former Pakistani prime minister and present day opposition figure, Nawaz Sharif, and in the 1970s to Idi Amin when he fled Uganda. Saudi Arabia would seem to view this hospitality as a means to secure influence over the exile's home country and/or possibly as a means to influence events if such figures resume a political role in the future.

Saudi Arabia had had good relations with Mr Ben Ali and his regime, and in that sense was a natural choice as place of refuge. However, Prince Saud al-Faisal thought it politic to balance the so-called asylum decision by stating that Saudi Arabia was "with the Tunisian people". The Saudi foreign minister also made clear that the decision to grant Mr Ben Ali "refuge" was subject to clear rules about refraining from political statements about events in his home country and that there should be no transfer of wealth to Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudi leadership may face embarrassment over the fact that the new Tunisian government has since issued a warrant for the arrest of Mr Ben Ali and his immediate family via Interpol, and is seeking to freeze their assets. Meanwhile, shortly after a wave of self-immolations across the Arab world that had began in Tunisia, and which had helped spark the revolt, an official Saudi fatwa (religious ruling) was released asserting that such acts were un-Islamic. It was later alleged by Saudi Shia activists, without verification, that two self-immolations had taken place in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.

However, by late January, as demonstrations engulfed Egypt, the semi-officially approved Saudi embrace of popular aspirations in other Arab countries began to shift significantly. The day after the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, had responded to nationwide and sometimes violent challenges to his authority by making a live broadcast in which he promised political changes, King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud (who is presently convalescing in Morocco) issued a strong statement in support of the Egyptian leader, adding that "some infiltrators into the brotherly Egyptian people are attempting to destabilise that country's security and stability in the name of freedom of expression". It is unlikely that the Saudi leadership will feel directly threatened by the potential for a similar popular uprising. However, the Saudi leader's language, which is in line with the traditional response of Arab leaders to any hint of popular upheaval, suggests that the kingdom's leadership is firmly siding with the status quo.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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