The current account is forecast to remain in surplus in 2011-15. Oil revenue will remain the primary factor determining current-account trends, and changes in oil prices and production will continue to be the main risks. International oil prices are expected to average US$80/barrel in 2011-15 (slightly above our previous forecast). Revenue from oil exports will remain below its 2008 peak, but with lower world commodity prices also helping to keep down the cost of imports, the trade balance is expected to remain comfortably in surplus. This should be sufficient to offset persistent deficits on the services and current transfers accounts. Income from investments abroad has been sustained through the global economic slowdown, and we expect the income account to return widening surpluses over the forecast period. Rising domestic fuel consumption, weak global demand for oil and declining international oil prices will lead to a slow decline in export earnings from 2011 and a contraction in the current-account surplus. The current-account surplus is forecast to average 11.7% of GDP in 2011-15, although it will narrow to 7.2% of GDP in 2015.