The currency's peg to the US dollar, which is likely to be maintained throughout the forecast period, means that the main policy rate of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA, the central bank) must roughly track movements in US interest rates, although this can sometimes lead to economic distortions when the two countries' growth paths are misaligned. The Federal Reserve (the US central bank) is expected to maintain rates at a low level throughout 2011 and is only likely to begin monetary tightening in the second half of 2012, with dollar three-month commercial paper reaching 5.1% by 2015. SAMA will follow these broad trends but may begin to tighten monetary policy ahead of the US owing to concerns about rising inflation and money supply growth. A small premium is likely to be maintained given Saudi concerns about inflation.

Credit to the private sector stagnated for much of 2009 owing to banks' concerns about corporate risk and as companies adjusted to new lending requirements. However, it picked up in 2010 and is likely to continue expanding. The bulk of current lending may be going to larger companies, and the government may privately lean on banks to increase their lending to smaller businesses in the domestic private sector.