Forecast summary | ||||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
Real GDP growth | 10.2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.0 |
Industrial production growth | 15.9 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.1 |
Gross agricultural production growth | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Unemployment rate (av) | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.4 |
Consumer price inflation (av) | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 5.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
Prime lending rate (end-period) | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
Government balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 1,587.3 | 1,752.8 | 1,959.6 | 2,209.1 | 2,488.2 | 2,779.6 |
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 1,315.9 | 1,528.4 | 1,742.0 | 1,990.6 | 2,280.6 | 2,567.8 |
Current-account balance (US$ bn) | 323.4 | 315.0 | 325.9 | 329.7 | 316.3 | 314.2 |
Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 5.7 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 413.9 | 471.5 | 531.9 | 604.6 | 681.5 | 765.7 |
Exchange rate Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.77 | 6.50 | 6.38 | 6.02 | 5.86 | 5.72 |
Exchange rate Rmb:US$ (end-period) | 6.57 | 6.39 | 6.23 | 6.01 | 5.85 | 5.70 |
Exchange rate Rmb:¥100 (av) | 7.74 | 7.89 | 7.75 | 7.44 | 7.14 | 6.85 |
Exchange rate Rmb:€ (end-period) | 8.80 | 7.67 | 7.41 | 7.03 | 6.81 | 6.69 |
a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. |
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