Country Report Montenegro January 2011

Foreign trade and payments: Export growth slows markedly

Montenegro's export performance remained strong in the third quarter of 2010 and in October, although the rate of growth slowed markedly compared with the second quarter. The value of exports rose by 14.8% year on year in the third quarter and by 8.1% in October-down from 66.3% in the second quarter-with the growth driven largely by raw materials and energy. Exports of petroleum products surged by 191.4% year on year in July-September and by 114.7% in October. Electricity exports benefited from the increased domestic surplus, rising from zero in 2009 to EUR11.9m, which was the equivalent of 4.6% of total exports in the first ten months of the year. Exports of metal ores and scrap metals soared by 191.2% year on year in the third quarter and by 112.9% in October. However, the dynamics of Montenegro's main export commodity, aluminium, took a turn for the worse, plunging from an increase of 146.3% year on year in the second quarter to growth of 9.4% in the third quarter, and then shrinking by 14.4% in October.

Imports increased more modestly, growing by 6.8% year on year in the third quarter-unchanged from the second quarter-and contracting by 8.7% in October. Imports of foodstuffs accelerated gradually, from a contraction of 0.4% year on year in the second quarter to growth of 3.3% in the third quarter and 5.7% in October. Demand for machinery and transport equipment slowed, with growth decelerating from 13.2% year on year in the second quarter to 8.3% in the third quarter, before contracting by 26.3% in October. There was robust growth in demand for petroleum, with imports rising by 31% year on year in April-June, by 27.5% in July-September and by 39.2% in October.

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