Despite the conclusion by the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) that Montenegro had moved out of recession, credit to the economy continued to shrink in the third quarter, with the rate of contraction in the volume of credit, at around 11-12% year on year, little changed since February 2010. Credit to firms, accounting for around 60% of the total, shrank by 14.3% year on year in September, and credit to households declined by 9%.
The dynamics of deposit growth were strongly influenced by base effects. Deposit growth, which accelerated in July and August to 4.5% and 7.9% year on year, respectively, turned negative in September and declined by 6.2%, reflecting a one-off surge in deposits a year earlier. In September 2009 state company deposits soared by 290% year on year-up from 9.3% in August-as a result of the partial privatisation and recapitalisation of the state-owned power company, EPCG. Household deposits grew steadily in the third quarter of 2010, accelerating from 15.7% year-on-year growth in June to 18.5% in September. Time deposits, accounting for two-thirds of all household deposits, led the expansion, accelerating to 19.7% year on year in September, the fastest rate in two years.
Credit and deposits | ||||||||
(% change, year on year) | ||||||||
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||
Dec | Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Sep | |
Credit to firms | 21.6 | 5.7 | -4.3 | -10.7 | -17.7 | -14.5 | -13.3 | -14.3 |
Credit to households | 30.7 | 12.9 | -2.1 | -9.4 | -11.4 | -10.8 | -9.3 | -9.0 |
Total credit | 24.6 | 8.7 | -3.2 | -9.9 | -14.3 | -12.2 | -11.4 | -12.0 |
Deposits of firms | -4.5 | -24.9 | -30.3 | -3.0 | -14.1 | 3.4 | 6.6 | -19.2 |
Deposits of households | -16.0 | -26.4 | -30.2 | -30.9 | -1.4 | 8.9 | 15.7 | 18.5 |
Demand deposits | -35.1 | -39.1 | -39.5 | -26.9 | -11.8 | -3.1 | 15.9 | 16.2 |
Time deposits | 0.1 | -16.7 | -24.5 | -27.4 | 4.3 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 19.7 |
Total deposits | -4.8 | -17.7 | -22.8 | -18.3 | -8.3 | 0.9 | 2.9 | -6.2 |
Source: Central Bank of Montenegro. |
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