Country Report Montenegro January 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Monetary policy

The adoption of the euro as legal tender means that the Central Bank of Montenegro cannot influence the money supply, which is determined by flows on the balance of payments. This puts a greater burden on fiscal policy in responding to economic shocks. Until 2009 the Central Bank focused primarily on supervising rapid growth in commercial bank lending, which had raised concerns about banks' ability to assess risk. Its measures to limit banks' annual credit expansion and to institute a higher solvency ratio helped to slow the runaway growth in credit to single figures in early 2009. The Central Bank repeatedly eased the mandatory reserve requirement in 2009-lowering the rate to 10%-to boost liquidity in the banking system. However, with credit growth contracting since the third quarter of 2009 (and shrinking by 12% year on year in September 2010), the Central Bank is expected to consider further measures to encourage lending.

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