Country Report Montenegro January 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

The government has the overriding goal of advancing EU and NATO integration. By obtaining the status of a candidate for EU membership, Montenegro passed an important hurdle in mid-December 2010. The granting of candidate status, at a meeting of EU heads of state and government, followed a recommendation to that effect from the European Commission in early November. The Commission's recommendation came two years after Montenegro had submitted a formal application to join the EU, in December 2008. However, the granting of EU candidate status is not expected to translate into an early opening date for EU accession talks, which will need to be preceded by further reforms involving Montenegrin institutions, including more resolute action on tackling corruption and organised crime as well as improvements to the public administration. If Montenegro makes sufficient progress in time for the Commission's next annual progress report, due by November 2011, it could open EU accession talks in the first half of 2012 at the earliest. There is a risk that within the EU enlargement fatigue may deepen, in which case there are likely to be further obstacles on the way to Montenegro's advance towards eventual EU membership.

Montenegro hopes to receive an invitation to join NATO in the next few years, having been granted a Membership Action Plan (MAP) by the alliance in December 2009. Meeting the obligations arising from the MAP is the last formal stage that a country needs to reach before NATO membership can be obtained. In early 2010 Montenegro dispatched a small military unit to join NATO's security mission in Afghanistan in order to bolster its credentials as a membership candidate. However, NATO accession remains highly controversial in Montenegro, with opinion polls suggesting that there are more people opposed to membership than in favour of it. Anti-NATO sentiments are likely to weaken over time as memories of the alliance's bombing campaign against Yugoslavia during the Kosovo war in 1999-which included targets in Montenegro-fade.

Diplomatic relations with the country's former partner republic, Serbia, will come under strain from time to time because of differences over Kosovo and other issues. Serbia recalled its ambassador from Montenegro in January 2010 after Montenegro established diplomatic relations with Kosovo, which Serbia continues to regard as part of its territory. There are other contentious issues in bilateral relations, including Montenegro's reluctance to allow Serbia to establish consulates in three Montenegrin towns. On the positive side, the two countries signed an extradition treaty in October 2010, which should help the fight against organised crime.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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